The 2024 Republican presidential nomination race was initially expected to be a tight competition between former President Donald Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. However, recent polls indicate that Trump has taken a significant lead over his competitors.
A Morning Consult poll of national Republican voters shows Trump with a commanding 55-point lead, with DeSantis tied for second place with Nikki Haley. As several Republican candidates have dropped out of the race, the field continues to shrink, and the upcoming primary elections and caucuses may further reduce the competition.
The Iowa caucus on January 15 could be a deciding factor for DeSantis. According to political consultant Douglas MacKinnon, if DeSantis loses the state of Iowa to Trump, he may consider dropping out of the race. MacKinnon’s opinion piece for The Hill cites sources including a donor to DeSantis’s campaign and a political operative, who claim that DeSantis would drop out either on the night of the Iowa decision or the morning after.
DeSantis’s campaign has denied this report, stating that he is committed to staying in the race. However, if he does drop out, MacKinnon suggests that DeSantis would likely endorse Trump for president, considering the increasing number of endorsements Trump has been receiving from members of Congress and elected officials.
The polls indicate that Trump has a significant lead not only nationally but also in key states like Iowa and New Hampshire. If Trump secures a victory in Iowa, it is anticipated that he will gain more endorsements and potentially see a decline in funding for his opponents, solidifying his position in the 2024 election race.
MacKinnon also suggests that the timing may not be right for DeSantis, even looking ahead to 2028. The months of January and February will play a crucial role in shaping the Republican presidential race, with South Carolina being a key state for Nikki Haley. A recent poll shows Trump with a 29-point lead over Haley in South Carolina, making it a must-win for her campaign.
In the upcoming fifth Republican primary debate, both DeSantis and Haley will participate, while Trump has chosen to skip the event. Despite the possibility of DeSantis endorsing Trump, it is unlikely that he will be considered as a vice presidential pick, as he has previously stated that he is not a “number two guy.” Additionally, the intense mutual attacks between the two candidates over the past few months may further complicate their relationship.
As the race for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination progresses, it is becoming clear that Trump has a significant advantage over his competitors. The results of the upcoming primary elections and caucuses, as well as the candidates’ performances in debates, will continue to shape the dynamics of the race.
