In case there was any confusion, it is clear that the Deshaun Watson contract is not going to happen again in the future. Fully guaranteed contracts for NFL players will be a thing of the past, and there are a few reasons for this.
Firstly, Patrick Mahomes, the star quarterback for the Kansas City Chiefs, is unlikely to push for a fully guaranteed contract like Watson did. Mahomes understands the importance of team-building and the financial flexibility it provides. He recognizes that a fully guaranteed contract would limit the Chiefs’ ability to surround him with talent and compete for championships.
Secondly, when the Denver Broncos extended Russell Wilson’s contract, they made sure to leave themselves an escape hatch. They signed him to a five-year, $200-plus million contract extension that does not go into effect until the 2024 season. This gives the Broncos the ability to evaluate Wilson’s performance and make a decision on his future without being financially tied to him for the long term.
Recently, Aaron Rodgers criticized Sean Payton for his comments regarding Wilson. Payton, who was hired by the Broncos following a disastrous 2022 season, made it clear that Wilson was no longer the star of the organization. This move, combined with Payton’s blow-up at Wilson during a game, suggests that the Broncos may be considering a change at quarterback.
In fact, it has been reported that the Broncos will start Jarrett Stidham, not Wilson, in their upcoming game against the Los Angeles Chargers. This decision allows the Broncos to see how their offense performs under Stidham and also protects Wilson from potential injury. As long as Wilson passes his physical in March, the Broncos won’t owe him a $37 million injury guarantee.
If the Broncos decide to cut Wilson during the offseason, which many insiders believe is likely, they will have to pay him $39 million and suffer an $85 million salary cap hit. However, this hit can be spread out over two seasons, giving the Broncos some financial relief. They will still be able to field a competitive team while absorbing the dead money.
On the other hand, the Cleveland Browns do not have the same luxury. Cutting Watson this offseason would result in at least $156 million of dead money. Releasing him after June 1 would result in a $110 million cap hit in 2024 and 2025. Releasing him before that date would lead to $201 million of dead money on the Browns’ books for next season. With a salary cap of just over $224 million for the 2023 NFL season, the Browns would struggle to field a team in 2024.
The Broncos and Browns both made seismic moves in 2022 when they traded for Wilson and Watson, respectively. They believed that they were a quarterback away from winning a Super Bowl. However, recent performances have shown that the Browns may not need Watson to succeed. With Joe Flacco at quarterback, the offense is performing more effectively than it did with Watson.
If the Browns make a deep playoff run but fall short of the Super Bowl, they will likely have to put Watson back at the helm next season and hope for the best. Watson may not be the highest-paid quarterback in the NFL, but he has a significant hold on the team’s finances. The Broncos, on the other hand, need more than just a quarterback to compete for a Super Bowl, but they could certainly benefit from better play at the position.
In the end, the Broncos structured Wilson’s contract in a way that allows them to make a decision on his future without crippling their finances. They can absorb the financial hit and move forward. The Browns, however, have put themselves in a precarious position by tying themselves to Watson’s contract. This is a situation that NFL owners will want to avoid in the future, as it limits their ability to make sound financial decisions.
