UNWTO Forecasts International Tourism Return to Pre-Pandemic Levels by 2024
The COVID-19 pandemic has wreaked havoc on the global tourism industry, causing a significant decline in international travel. With travel restrictions, lockdowns, and a general fear of contracting the virus, people around the world have been forced to put their travel plans on hold. However, the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) is now offering a glimmer of hope, predicting a return to pre-pandemic levels by 2024.
The UNWTO, the specialized agency of the United Nations responsible for promoting sustainable and responsible tourism, recently released its long-term forecast for international tourism. According to their analysis, the recovery will be a gradual process, with a rebound expected to begin in the second half of 2021. By 2022, international tourism arrivals are predicted to reach 75% of pre-pandemic levels, followed by a further increase to 85% in 2023. Finally, by 2024, the industry is expected to fully recover and return to the levels experienced before the outbreak of the pandemic.
Several factors contribute to this optimistic forecast. The rollout of vaccines worldwide has been a game-changer, providing hope that the virus can be controlled and eventually eradicated. As more people are vaccinated, travel restrictions are likely to be lifted, making it easier for tourists to explore new destinations. Additionally, the development of digital health passports and travel bubbles between countries is expected to facilitate safe international travel.
Moreover, there is a pent-up demand for travel that has been building during the pandemic. As people have been confined to their homes for months, the desire to explore new places and experience different cultures has only grown stronger. This pent-up demand, combined with the easing of travel restrictions, is expected to fuel a surge in international tourism once it is safe to do so.
The forecast also takes into account the changing preferences and behaviors of travelers. The pandemic has forced people to reassess their priorities, with a renewed focus on health, safety, and sustainability. Travelers are likely to seek destinations that prioritize these aspects, such as those with robust health and safety protocols, outdoor activities, and sustainable practices. Destinations that adapt to these changing preferences are more likely to attract tourists and experience a quicker recovery.
However, the UNWTO also highlights the need for continued collaboration and cooperation among governments, the private sector, and international organizations. The recovery of the tourism industry heavily relies on a coordinated effort to ensure the safe reopening of borders, the implementation of health and safety measures, and the restoration of travelers’ confidence. It is crucial for countries to work together to rebuild the tourism sector in a sustainable and inclusive manner.
While the UNWTO’s forecast offers a glimmer of hope for the tourism industry, it is important to note that the recovery is not guaranteed. The trajectory of the pandemic, the effectiveness of vaccination programs, and unforeseen events could all impact the timeline of recovery. However, with the global community’s commitment to overcoming this crisis and the resilience of the tourism industry, there is reason to be cautiously optimistic about a return to pre-pandemic levels by 2024.
