DNP Lord Joel Embiid is the poltergeist still haunting the MVP race and Philadelphia’s title aspirations. When Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic or Shai Gilgeou-Alexander are eventually crowned, Embiid’s name will hang over the successor. Before the Philly center was jettisoned from the MVP race, he was lapping the field. Embiid was on pace for his second scoring crown, leading the league in PER by a significant margin and doing all that in significantly fewer touches per game than Jokic in Denver.
Embiid’s case for MVP in absentia is stronger than ever because the void he left behind has been a black hole consuming Philly’s once lofty standing in the East. The nature of Embiid’s injury has left the organization with the expectation he can return by mid-to-late March, but Embiid’s fragile tendons are fickle, leaving Philadelphia in basketball purgatory. After resembling an Eastern Conference contender through the first half of the campaign, their last 15 games have been the stuff of a lottery team’s nightmares.
On Sunday, the Sixers suffered a first-quarter TKO against the Milwaukee Bucks. After 12 minutes of action against an Eastern Conference heavyweight, they trailed by 14 and never fought back. Their 21-point loss to Milwaukee was Philly’s 11th loss in 15 games since Embiid’s left knee first flared up against Indiana on Jan. 25. The fully healthy version of the Sixers that was on track to challenge Boston in the East is now flirting with disaster. As of Monday morning, Philly is only a game and a half from slipping into the seventh seed.
Nick Nurse and Daryl Morey are projecting a positive outlook about Embiid’s possible availability for the postseason, but the Sixers are currently competing like a team set to join him on the 2024 sidelines before the postseason even tips off.
As expected, Philadelphia’s offense has nosedived into the rocks below. In late January, Philadelphia was the sixth-most efficient scoring offense per 100 possessions. Since losing their MVP centerpiece, they’re 24th.
The rudderless offense constitutes only half of the rot eating at the Sixers. If anyone ever doubted Embiid’s role as a deterrent in the lane, their 29th-ranked defensive rating in the last month should serve as a reminder of his two-way impact. Since Jan. 26, Philadelphia has surrendered 10 additional points per 100 possessions, a precipitous increase from the top-10 defense they resembled in early January when Embiid began managing soreness in his knee.
Tyrese Maxey has stabilized since crashing out in the first few weeks of carrying the offense on his shoulders. The same can’t be said for Tobias Harris, who has been abysmal. On Sunday, Philly’s $40 million expiring contract shot 3-for-11 from the field and scored only eight points. In February, he’s draining fewer than a quarter of his buckets from distance. Sunday was an aberration for new acquisition Buddy Hield, who shot 4-for-13 from the field, scored only 11 points and was complicit in Philadelphia’s lifeless performance.
Giannis Antetokounmpo tied Embiid’s understudies Paul Reed and Mo Bamba to the train tracks and plowed through them for a near 30-point triple-double. The drop off from Embiid to Reed has never been more apparent than the chalk outlines Antetokoumpo left around him in the paint.
After Sunday’s dismantling, there is a light at the end of the tunnel if they can survive this stretch. A generous outlook is that Jonathan Kuminga falling on Embiid’s knee may have been a blessing in disguise. Instead of managing his ailing knee for a few more weeks before he was forced to choose between going under the knife and missing the postseason or trying to push through it until the offseason, he should have plenty of time to heal before the elimination rounds begin.
Embiid winning the MVP last season may have been the worst thing to happen to the 2023 Sixers. He often runs out of gas by mid-April or has orthopedic injuries and balky joints flaring up after six months of overusage. Qualifying as a play-in team would be a dispiriting turn of events, but Miami and L.A. have shown that it’s not an insurmountable task.
A year ago, Embiid’s sprained right knee in Game 3 against the Brooklyn Nets led to his Game 1 absence from their second-round matchup against the Celtics and severely limited his movement throughout that seven-game series.
Embiid’s recovery is expected to be evaluated in the coming days and weeks. The pressure to reacclimate him into the lineup as soon as possible will be strong, but meniscus injuries are complicated. The surrounding area attaches the quadriceps, PCLs, MCLs and more L’s than the Sixers can count in February. Embiid’s knee has to be fully healed and strengthened before Philadelphia takes any chances with his health, but with 25 games left in the schedule, time is running out.
Find DJ Dunson on X…or don’t: @cerebralsportex
