The 2024 presidential election is shaping up to be a potential rematch of the 2020 presidential election that saw Joe Biden defeat Donald Trump. National polls of registered voters continue to show a close hypothetical race for the 2023 election between the two potential candidates.
According to the most recent Republican voter poll from Morning Consult, Trump has a 52-point lead and 65% support. Although his lead has declined from the previous week, he remains well ahead of his competitors. However, when pitted against Biden in a hypothetical matchup, the race becomes much closer. In the latest poll, Biden received 43% of the vote, while Trump received 42%. This marks a gain of two percentage points for Biden from the previous week and puts him back in the lead.
The poll also highlighted the importance of Independent voters, who could ultimately decide the election. Among Independent voters, Trump has a lead of 38% compared to Biden’s 31%. However, Biden lost one percentage point and Trump gained two percentage points among Independent voters from the previous week’s poll.
It is worth noting that the poll found that a significant majority of Republicans (86%) selected Trump, and 87% of voters who backed Trump in the 2020 election are backing him again. Similarly, 84% of Democratic voters selected Biden, and 81% of voters who supported Biden in the 2020 election are backing him again.
The latest poll marks a change in the lead, with Biden taking the top position. Trump had led the poll in three straight weeks prior and six of the previous seven weeks. However, over the past 15 weeks, Biden has been tied with Trump five times, ahead of him four times, and behind him six times.
One of the key concerns for Biden’s campaign and the Democrats could be the economy, which voters selected as the top concern in the Morning Consult poll. The economy being a major concern could be worrisome to Biden’s campaign, especially with the effects of higher inflation leading to higher prices for goods and services. Some have blamed Biden for not doing enough to help consumers who are struggling with higher prices and living expenses.
Biden recently highlighted the all-time highs for the stock market in a campaign video, which drew the attention of voters and Trump. While stock market indexes are at all-time highs, it comes with high inflation and a recent market drop. Trump criticized Biden, stating that his “inflation catastrophe is demolishing your savings and ravaging your dreams.”
The stock market’s performance under Biden has been positive, with the S&P 500 gaining 37.4% during his first year in office. However, in 2022, the S&P 500 experienced a decline of over 19%, the largest annual drop since 2008. In comparison, during Trump’s four years as president, the S&P 500 had average annual gains of 14.5%.
As the 2024 presidential election approaches, the economy and stock market returns are likely to become key topics of discussion. If the economy remains the key issue for voters in the 2024 election, the past results may tip the scales in Trump’s favor.
