President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump are nearly tied in a hypothetical match-up for the 2024 general election, according to a new poll. The NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist National Poll found that Biden had 48% support from registered voters nationally, while Trump was not far behind with 47% support. Five percent of voters said they were undecided.
The poll, which surveyed 1,582 adults from January 29 through February 1, showed that the gap between Biden and Trump has remained relatively stable over the past few months. The widest gap separating the two since August 2023 has been three points.
Unsurprisingly, the responses were largely divided along party lines. Ninety-one percent of Democrats favored Biden, while 93% of Republicans backed Trump. However, there was a small percentage (5% of Democrats and 6% of Republicans) who said they would vote for the opposing candidate.
The poll also found that independent voters could play a crucial role in the election. Fifty percent of independents favored Trump over Biden, while 42% supported Biden. This suggests that independent voters will be the key swing group in determining the outcome of the election.
One factor that could complicate the equation is Trump’s legal issues. When asked about their choice if Trump were to be convicted of a crime, 51% said they would prefer Biden in that scenario, compared to 45% who would still back Trump. Five percent said they were undecided. It is worth noting that the percentage of Republicans who would vote for Trump even if he were convicted has decreased from 93% to 88%.
“The picture going forward in the likely matchup between Biden and Trump remains unchanged with one major exception,” said Lee Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. “Right now, a Trump conviction would change the equation in Biden’s favor.”
The poll also explored the chances of former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley against Biden if she were the Republican nominee. Biden led Haley by a slim margin of 46% to 45%. However, Haley fared better than Trump among independents, with a solid 12-percentage point lead over Biden compared to an 8-point lead for Trump.
In terms of approval ratings, a majority of Americans disapprove of Biden’s job as president (54% to 40%). Similarly, Trump had a higher unfavorable rating (55%) compared to his favorable rating (40%). However, Republicans appear to be more forgiving of Trump, with three-fourths of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents not concerned about his perceived extremism for the general election.
Biden’s ratings on key election issues continue to be a concern. Only 29% of Americans approve of his handling of immigration, and 54% disapprove of his economic policy, known as Bidenomics. Despite touting job creation and GDP growth, many Americans are worried about persistent inflationary pressure and indiscriminate corporate layoffs.
Overall, the poll suggests that the 2024 general election could be a tight race between Biden and Trump, with independent voters playing a crucial role. Trump’s legal issues could potentially shift the dynamic in Biden’s favor, but the outcome remains uncertain.
