Virginia Voters Favor Trump in Republican Primaries, Biden in General Election
As Super Tuesday approaches on March 5, Virginia voters are showing strong support for Donald Trump in the Republican presidential primaries, according to the latest Roanoke College poll. However, in a hypothetical matchup against President Joe Biden in the general election, Trump does not fare as well.
The poll, conducted by The Institute for Policy and Opinion Research between Feb. 11 and Feb. 19, surveyed 705 adult residents of Virginia. In the general election scenario, 47% of respondents chose Biden compared to 43% who chose Trump. Interestingly, if Trump were replaced with South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley as the presidential candidate, she would prevail over Biden with a 49%-40% margin.
One notable finding from the poll is the increase in the percentage of respondents who said they would consider voting for an independent candidate in the November election, rising by five points to 50%. When asked about the most important election issues, 27% mentioned jobs and the economy, while immigration, inflation, and abortion were also mentioned by respondents.
David Taylor, director of IPOR and professor of mathematics at Roanoke College, noted the state’s political landscape, saying, “Our state is generally considered either a swing state or one that leans a bit to the left. Biden’s favorability rating remains relatively unchanged, but his unfavorability rating has nearly doubled since 2020, approaching Trump’s ratings from that year.”
In the Republican presidential primaries, Virginia voters overwhelmingly support Trump over other candidates. Trump led Haley by a margin of 75% to 15%, with 8% saying they would vote for someone else. Since November, Trump’s support has grown by 24%, while Haley’s has increased by 5%.
Despite Haley’s better standing in hypothetical matchups against Biden, Trump remains the favored candidate among likely Republican primary voters. When asked for their second choice for the nominee, 6% picked Trump, 25% chose Haley, and 56% preferred someone else. Among likely voters for Super Tuesday, Trump maintains a lead over Haley, capturing several of Virginia’s 48 delegates up for grabs.
While Trump is the likely outcome in the Republican primaries, Haley is expected to secure a portion of the delegates. The political landscape in Virginia reflects the broader national conversation as the 2024 election season heats up.
Overall, the Roanoke College poll provides insight into the preferences and sentiments of Virginia voters as they gear up for the upcoming primaries and general election. The results underscore the importance of understanding voter attitudes and behaviors as candidates make their case to the electorate.
