President Joe Biden’s State of the Union address may have had a positive reception from the American public, but he still trails his predecessor Donald Trump in a likely rematch, new poll results released on Wednesday showed.
In a survey conducted by Suffolk University in partnership with USA Today, respondents were asked whom they would choose in a hypothetical 2024 presidential election. Forty percent opted for Trump from a pool of seven candidates. Biden trailed him by two percentage points, as the incumbent received 38% support.
Independent candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. received 9% of the votes, and fellow independent Cornel West and Green Party’s Jill Stein were picked by 2% each of the respondents. One percent said they would vote for a Libertarian candidate, 2% said they would pick a no-label candidate, 5% said they were undecided and 1% refused to respond.
The nationwide survey was conducted from March 8 to March 11, via interviews of 1,000 registered voters residing in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. The margin of sampling error was +/-3.1% points. The State of the Union address was delivered on March 7.
While votes were split along party lines, independents leaned more toward Trump than Biden. Thirty-two percent backed the former compared to 24% who sided with the latter.
Trump’s lead comes despite voter assessment of the economy improving. One-third of the voters said the U.S. was in an economic recovery, a notable improvement from the 9% who said the same in July 2022, a year after Biden assumed reins. The March survey found that 62% said the economy was either stagnant, in recession, or depression.
Still, the change in voter views on the economy should not be discounted, said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston.
“If the trend continues, more voters could connect the economic recovery to President Biden, especially if the economy continues to dominate other issues as we get closer to November,” he said.
A majority of respondents said that inflation or the economy is the most important issue determining their votes. Twenty-nine percent said they were concerned about the economy, while 24% and 23%, respectively, picked immigration and threats to democracy. Ten percent were concerned about the economy, and most other issues received less than mid-single-digit percentage support.
About 55% of the respondents gave unfavorable ratings to both Biden and Trump. Trump, however, has a better standing in terms of approval rating. Forty-nine percent said they approved of Trump’s presidency compared to 47% who said they disapproved of him. On the other hand, 41% approved of Biden’s presidency, while 55% disapproved.
Forty-three percent of Republican voters said they are excited about a potential Trump second term, but Democrats were not that enthused about a Biden presidency. Only 22% of Democrats said they were excited for a re-nomination of Biden.
“One wild card could be the 25% of voters who say it is possible they will switch their allegiance before the November elections,” the release from Suffolk said.
